2009 Nov 4
Even without criticism from the likes of Chu and Richter, hydrogen appears to be in trouble. Energy firm BP—part of the Big Oil crowd that EV conspiracists claim are behind the hydrogen push—has dropped its research into hydrogen for transportation. And while the restoration of DOE funds was seen as a victory by hydrogen supporters, $204 million is a pittance compared to the more than $8 billion in federal loans to automakers for EV production and research. Plus, there's the more ineffable sense of momentum. EVs have it, with new plug-ins announced monthly and the hype surrounding Tesla and Fisker's flashy vehicles, not to mention the auto industry's biggest gamble, GM's Volt. On the hydrogen side there is GM's tiny, blink-and-you'll-miss-them fleet of fuel cell Equinoxes and Honda's FCX Clarity, an unassuming sedan that requires approval from Honda to lease, based on your proximity to a hydrogen fueling station. Consider that GM's ill-fated EV1 was also lease-only, back in 1996, and it's easy to see the fuel cell vehicle as either seriously delayed, or headed for the same compactors that devoured hundreds of EV1's.
There are hydrogen holdouts, though, who point out that the inevitability of the EV may have been oversold. "There are a ton of ‘ifs' conspiring against batteries," says Craig Scott, manager of Toyota's Advanced Technologies Group. "People on the other side underestimate the challenge of electric-vehicle infrastructure. There are a very large percentage of people who don't have garages to plug into. And it will take billions to upgrade to a smart grid, so that, come 5 pm, you don't plug in and take down the neighborhood." Scott, it should be noted, also oversees Toyota's electrified vehicles. But the current anti-hydrogen sentiment has him playing defense. Technically speaking, Toyota takes the same stance as its competitors—hydrogen looks slow, but when you track the rate of progress, it's a research success story. "Take where we were in 1996 and where we are in 2009, and you'll see the fuel cell has had leaps and bounds greater development than the EV," Scott says. "The fuel cell vehicle used to have to tow around its power train in a gigantic trailer. Now we have refueling in 3 to 4 minutes and a range over 400 miles." By comparison, Scott claims that today's EV's are still plagued with short ranges and have "almost identical charge times" to that of Toyota's electric RAV4 in 1997. Like many automakers, Toyota plans to release plug-ins in the next couple of years, and hydrogen vehicles a few years later, possibly as soon as 2015.
Read more: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/industry/4335827.html?page=2
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